Job applications from federal employees have spiked, particularly from agencies under review by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), raising questions about how the private sector will absorb a wave of highly educated workers amid a cooling job market.
Applications from federal agencies facing potential cuts rose by more than 50% in February, according to new research from Indeed’s Hiring Lab. The increase follows early steps by the Trump Administration to reduce the size of the federal government, with agencies like the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and the Federal Aviation Administration among the first to face scrutiny.
The uptick, driven by displaced or soon-to-be-displaced workers, is notable in its scale and speed. While federal worker applications overall remain about 12% below their 2022 peak, job applications from employees in agencies under DOGE review are now 75% above 2022 levels.
“This recent surge in job search activity is unprecedented,” said Cory Stahle, an economist with Hiring Lab and author of the analysis. Unlike previous post-inauguration periods, similar surges did not occur after the 2016 or 2020 elections, he added.
Demand for remote and specialized roles
Federal workers are prioritizing flexibility in their job searches. Phrases like “remote,” “work from home,” and “remote work from home” accounted for 3.2% of total search terms used in February by active federal jobseekers. Searches for “part time” and “hiring immediately” were also common.
While the current administration is pushing for a return to office, these preferences for remote work predate the shift in policy. In fact, such search terms were more prevalent in February 2024 than in February 2025, suggesting that demand for flexible work arrangements is consistent among federal workers.
Specialized roles are also in demand. Searches for “horticulture” jumped 27-fold year over year, pointing to interest from USDA workers. “Employee relations,” “policy analyst,” and “contract specialist” were also among the most frequently searched job titles.
“The surge in these search terms provides a window into which roles are likely being impacted by DOGE’s cost-cutting efforts,” said Stahle.
Highly educated, but fewer job prospects
Roughly 70% of active federal jobseekers on Indeed hold at least a bachelor’s degree, according to profile data. But demand for knowledge workers has slowed. Job postings for roles requiring higher education were just 2% above pre-pandemic levels in February, while postings for jobs with lower educational requirements stood 17% above the baseline.
“The job market is gradually weakening, especially in sectors where federal workers are most likely to look,” said Stahle. At the same time, the national hires rate sits at 3.4%, near decade lows, making job transitions even more challenging.
Contractors may follow
The analysis focused on direct federal employees, but federal contractors—who outnumber federal workers by some estimates—are also at risk. Many perform similar tasks and hold similar qualifications, raising the possibility of even more candidates entering an already strained market.
That could be a challenge for employers, particularly in sectors that require advanced education but are experiencing slower growth. However, the influx may offer opportunities for employers facing long-standing vacancies or recruitment gaps, especially in state and local government roles.
Whether the labor market can absorb these workers “will depend largely on the types of jobs workers are looking for and a rebound in employer hiring and confidence,” said Stahle.
