Restaurant wages across the U.S. could rise by up to $3 per hour as immigration enforcement efforts threaten to shrink the hospitality workforce, according to new projections from OysterLink, a job platform focused on the industry.
The report estimates that a tighter labour market—driven by potential deportations of undocumented workers—could increase average hourly pay from $22 to $25, adding more than $6,500 to annual earnings across the sector. The biggest gains are expected in skilled back-of-house roles such as sous chefs and pastry chefs, with projected hourly increases of about $4.
Labour shortages could shift wage dynamics
The American Immigration Council estimates that one in 14 hospitality workers could be at risk of deportation under stricter immigration policies. Immigrants currently make up 22 percent of the food service workforce, many working in lower-paid, high-demand roles such as cooks, bussers, and dishwashers.
With those positions harder to fill, employers may need to raise wages to attract and retain staff, said the report.
“Full-time native-born employees already earn 14.4 percent more than their foreign-born counterparts,” the report noted. “As the labour pool shrinks, that gap is expected to close, with wages for roles like bartender and line cook rising accordingly.”
Estimated gains by position
Using Bureau of Labor Statistics wage data and applying a 14.4 percent increase across roles, OysterLink projected new wage levels across dozens of positions.
Among the expected increases:
- Dishwasher: From $15 to $17 per hour
- Line cook: From $16 to $19 per hour
- Bartender: From $18 to $20 per hour
- Restaurant manager: From $33 to $38 per hour
- Event manager: From $38 to $43 per hour
The report suggests that the effects could be felt unevenly, with lower-wage and kitchen-focused positions likely to see sharper increases as businesses compete for a shrinking pool of available labour.
OysterLink reports over 340,000 monthly visitors to its platform, which offers job listings and market insights for restaurant and hospitality professionals.
