The surge in worker confidence and employer generosity seen at the end of 2024 appears to have reversed course, according to new data from ZipRecruiter’s Q1 2025 Survey of New Hires. Indicators such as pay increases, signing bonuses, and job satisfaction all dropped from their Q4 highs, suggesting the labor market is cooling and bargaining power is shifting back toward employers.
The quarterly survey, which captures the experiences of U.S. workers who started new jobs in the past six months, found that only 60 percent of job switchers increased their pay—down from 73 percent in the previous quarter. Just 35 percent were actively recruited into their new roles, and only 20 percent received a signing bonus, less than half the previous rate.
Negotiation rates also declined, with 31 percent of new hires saying they negotiated their offers, compared to 49 percent last quarter. The share of workers receiving counter-offers from previous employers dropped from 31 percent to 19 percent, and job satisfaction also edged lower, with 40 percent describing themselves as “very satisfied,” down from 46 percent.
Temporary holiday momentum fades
ZipRecruiter analysts say the results suggest Q4’s unusually strong numbers may have been driven by holiday-season hiring rather than signaling a sustained recovery in worker leverage.
“While some metrics remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms, the direction of change in Q1 is decidedly cooler,” the report stated.
Spotlight: public-sector workers navigating federal workforce cuts
The survey also sheds light on former federal employees who entered the private sector following recent cuts to the U.S. civil service under President Trump’s administration. Among this group:
- Only 36% increased their pay, while another 36% took pay cuts—well above the national average of 25%.
- 32% reported being terminated from their government jobs.
- Just 8% said they left for higher pay, compared to 21% of all new hires.
Despite financial setbacks, 84 percent of former public-sector workers say they are satisfied in their new roles, and many remain in mission-driven work. Nearly half have transitioned into state or local government roles, and another 8 percent have entered healthcare.
Pay transparency expands, but disparities remain
More than half of new hires reported that job postings included a salary range, but disparities in access and outcomes persist. While 61 percent of men saw posted pay ranges, only 53 percent of women did. Among those who did see ranges, 28 percent said their offer landed at or below the low end—with women more likely than men to report being offered less than advertised.
Comfort with negotiation also varied by gender. Women were less likely to say they felt “very comfortable” discussing pay, and slightly more likely to report receiving no guidance on how compensation is determined. Only 76 percent of women said they believe they are paid fairly, compared to 80 percent of men.
Despite these gaps, optimism remains high: 70 percent of workers expect to earn more in the coming year. But their priorities diverge—men are more likely to pursue higher pay, while women tend to emphasize benefits and work-life balance, shaping both outcomes and expectations in a still-evolving job market.
About the survey
The ZipRecruiter Survey of New Hires is conducted quarterly and includes more than 1,500 U.S. workers who began a new job within the past six months. The Q1 2025 survey was administered by PureSpectrum and excludes self-employed individuals.
